Microsoft CTO predicts 95% of code will be AI-generated within five years
- Marijan Hassan - Tech Journalist
- Apr 7
- 2 min read
Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott says the software industry is on the verge of a massive shift: within five years, he expects 95% of code will be written by AI. “Very little is going to be - line by line - human-written code,” Scott said on a recent episode of the 20VC podcast.
But that doesn’t mean developers are being replaced. Scott believes the core aspects of software engineering, such as problem definition and high-level design, will remain firmly in human hands. "The more important and interesting part of authorship is still going to be entirely human," he asserted.
The veteran programmer with 41 years of experience drew a parallel to the industry's transition from Assembly language to high-level languages in the 1980s. He recalled how some old-guard programmers initially dismissed high-level languages, but that sentiment quickly faded. He sees the current integration of AI into coding as a similar evolutionary step, with "the very best programmers" readily adapting and embracing these powerful new tools.
The best programmers, he believes, will embrace AI tools to accelerate their workflows. “We’ve gone very quickly from developers being skeptical about these tools to, like, ‘you’ll get this from my cold, dying fingers,’” Scott said. “This is one of the most essential tools in my toolkit, and I will never give it up.”
Lower barrier for entry, but advanced programming is still critical
Scott further noted that AI has lowered the barrier to entry. Non-programmers can now build simple tools or websites on their own. However, advanced programmers are still highly valued.
"Think about this as sort of raising everyone's level. So, it makes everybody a programmer and you no longer have to go get someone to make a website for you," Scott said. "But if you are trying to solve the world's hardest computational problems, I think you're going to need computer scientists, and they're going to use these tools insanely well."
The CTO says he’s excited for this future where the best programmers use AI to supercharge their productivity.
"I'm hoping that it will get easier for small teams to go do big things," Scott said. "The reason that's important is, I think small teams are just faster than big teams are. You can do a lot with like 10 really great, super motivated engineers with really powerful tools."
His sentiments echo those of Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, who expects AI-assisted coding to help a team of 10 engineers do the work of 100.
